After coming across so many polarized views, I couldn’t stop myself from valuing this much talked about IPO. While I had originally intended to value the entire business, I had to contend myself with valuing their major business segment of “food delivery”. I have not valued “dining out” and B2B “hyperpure” (which is into suppling partner ingredients to partner restaurants), which are relatively small.
If Zomato is able to acquire ~60% of total addressable customers (from current ~50%) in an underpenetrated market, Avg Order Value (presently it is INR 400) grows at above inflation levels, ad (including discounts) and employee benefit expenses decline (as a % of revenue) significantly as the firm scales, then the food delivery business can justify INR 50,000 Cr of the 60,000 Cr market value. This is my “bull” case scenario. In fact, if the value of the other two smaller businesses is ~INR 10,000 Cr then this value combined with my “bull” case valuation will make the IPO fully priced However, my sense of the value of the food delivery business is centered on my more moderate (base case) assumptions that justify 50% of the market value. Either way, there is a certainly a lot of optionality, which does advocate a premium on the DCF valuation.
Market
As of 2019, online food delivery share in the USD 65B food service market (defined as non-home cooked food or restaurant food) was 6.5% (i.e. USD 4.2B) in India. Food service market in India itself forms only 8-9% of the entire food consumption market, when you compare to 40-50% in both US and China.
Per research from Nomura, presented in this news article, it is estimated that food delivery market will grow to USD 33B in 10 years. Quoting from the research: “We are positive on the Foodtech market and forecast a revenue potential of $6.5 billion by FY30F and assign a market value of $18.5 billion to the food delivery market. This assumes: 1) 20% CAGR in monthly transacting users, at around 87 million, 2) ordering frequency to improve to around 5.5 (vs 4 in FY21F), and 3) average order value CAGR of close to 2%. These should result in a GMV of around $33 billion by FY30F, assuming a 20% stable take rate, implying a revenue pool of $6.5 billion.” I have put these numbers in the table below –
Structuring the valuation
I now go on to value Zomato under the following three scenarios:
For my base case, I assume that Zomato will be able to maintain its ~50% market share in terms of the number of unique transacting customers in its platform. I further assume that the average order value (AOV) will increase at close to inflation levels from INR 400 currently. As per Zomato’s RHP, on an average, 6.8 million customers ordered food every month on their platform in Fiscal 2021 with an average monthly frequency of 3.0. I assume that in my base case the monthly frequency will increase to 4.5, which is below 5.5 as per Nomura’s estimates. I make such as assumption because the industry monthly ordering frequency in FY21 was higher than that of Zomato.
Unit economics
To value this business, it is important to understand the unit customer economics i.e. how much does Zomato earn and spend per customer. This is presented in the snippet from their RHP below.
Value of Existing Customers
To value each customer (i.e. to estimate CLV, which is PV of retention adjusted future contribution profits per customer), I have projected out the contribution profit per order by using last year’s take rate or commission of 15.7% on AOV as my starting point (refer exhibit-2 for AOV estimates). I have assumed that customer delivery charge per order, delivery cost and other variable costs rise at close to inflation levels. I have assumed a slightly higher growth of 7.5% for discounts. Infact until FY20, discounts were a lot higher. It’s only now that Zomato has reduced discounts significantly. If they were to increase discounts (which they very well may) then I’d be overestimating CLV and subsequently the value of the food delivery business.
Using the above base case estimates, I get a value of INR 8,231 per customer over its lifetime.
Value of Prospective Customers
Value of a new (prospective) customer = Customer lifetime value (CLV) - Customer acquisition cost (CAC)
To now estimate value of new customers, I need to estimate CAC.
CAC every year = Ad and sales promotion expenses (net of discounts since discounts have already been considered in CLV estimate above) in that year / acquired customers that year I need to project Ad and sales promotion expenses to estimate CAC every year. As Zomato achieves economies of scale, this expense should reduce as a percentage of sales (you'd hope to that happen else the business wouldn't sustain). I assume that the ad and sales promotion expenses fall from ~25% in FY21 to 17.5% of food delivery revenue in FY31. In absolute terms, in my base case these expense rise 10x e with # of unique customers increasing from 6.8M to 52.2M
Value erosion by other expenses
Now, what about the other expenses such as employee costs? I need to project them out and bake them in too.
As Zomato scales, employee expenses should reduce as a % of sales drastically. Note delivery partners are paid on a per delivery basis and those expenses have been considered in estimate of CLV (exhibit – 4). I assume that these expense reduce from 37% to 17.5% of food delivery revenue in my base case.
Putting it all together
Enterprise Value of food delivery business = Value of existing + new customers - corporate drag; Equity value of food delivery business = Enterprise Value + Cash + IPO Proceeds - Debt
I may have been too harsh in bear case and that reflects in my value / share. My sense of the value of the food delivery business is centered on the base case scenario, which makes the IPO over priced. However, please note that this valuation does not include the B2B hyperpure and dining out businesses. They are relatively small now, but may very well grow. In fact, if the value of these two businesses is ~INR 100,000 M (or INR 10,000 cr), then this value combined with my “bull” case valuation will make the IPO fully priced. Bankers are aware of the euphoria around this IPO and are sure trying to make the most of it. My “bull” case is not an attempt to match their narrative. This case may well play out if Zomato is able to grab a higher market share in an underpenetrated market and key parameters like AOV, # of customers, ad / sales (including discounts), employee benefits etc. unfold as per my bull estimates above.
To conclude, I will say that value of the firm depends upon your narrative. For any young growth and money losing firm, it’s hard to rely on limited history and make projections. The business model thrives on the hope that as the firm grows it will realize economies of scale resulting in declining non-direct operating expenses (as a % of revenue; in absolute terms it will rise). This valuation is built around that hope. Taking about hope! Hope this blog has helped. You can pick one of the narratives above (or perhaps be somewhere between). Do write to me if you have questions. Always open to talk about valuations.
Thanks for reading.
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1,240 responses to “Zomato IPO Valuation 2021”
I want to share a message that has been spreading all over the internet that concerns the times we are living in. Whether you believe in God or not, this is a must read message!
We can see throughout time how we have been slowly conditioned to come to this point where we are on the verge of a cashless society. Would it surprise you to know that the Bible foretold of this event? Don’t believe me? This may be the most imporant message you will read in these times…please do not ignore this!
This messsage reveals what the Mark of the Beast is, and the meaning behind counting a number people have been pondering for centuries, 666. This message also shares why Barack Obama is the Antichrist. This is truly a message from God!
In the Revelation of Jesus Christ given to the apostle John, we read:
“He (the false prophet who deceives many by his miracles) causes all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hand or on their foreheads, and that no one may buy or sell except one who has the mark or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.
Here is wisdom. Let him who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man: His number is 666” (Revelation 13:16-18 NKJV).
Referring to the last generation, this could only be speaking of a cashless money society, which we have yet to see, but are heading towards. Why? Revelation 13:17 tells us that we cannot buy or sell unless we receive the mark of the beast in our right-hand or forehead. We could still buy or sell among one another without receiving the mark if physical money was still currency. It logically deduces itself to this reason.
These verses could not be referring to something spiritual because the word references two different physical locations (our right-hand or forehead) stating the mark will be on one “OR” the other. It once again logically deduces itself to this reason.
Here is where it really starts to come together. It is shocking how accurate the Bible is concerning the RFID microchip. These are notes from a man named Carl Sanders who worked with a team of engineers to help develop this microchip in the late 1960’s.
“Carl Sanders sat in seventeen New World Order meetings with heads-of-state officials such as Henry Kissinger and Bob Gates of the C.I.A. to discuss plans on how to bring about a one-world system. The government commissioned Carl Sanders to design a microchip for identifying and controlling the peoples of the world—a microchip that could be inserted under the skin with a hypodermic needle (a quick, convenient method that would be gradually accepted by society).
Carl Sanders, with a team of engineers behind him, with U.S. grant monies supplied by tax dollars, took on this project and designed a microchip that is powered by a lithium battery, rechargeable through the temperature changes in our skin. Without the knowledge of the Bible (Brother Sanders was not a Christian at the time), these engineers spent one-and-a-half-million dollars doing research on the best and most convenient place to have the microchip inserted.
Guess what? These researchers found that the forehead and the back of the hand (the two places Revelation says the mark will go) are not just the most convenient places, but are also the only viable places for rapid, consistent temperature changes in the skin to recharge the lithium battery. The microchip is approximately seven millimeters in length, .75 millimeters in diameter, about the size of a grain of rice. It is capable of storing pages upon pages of information about you. All your general history, work history, crime record, health history, and financial data can be stored on this chip.
Brother Sanders believes that this microchip, which he regretfully helped design, is the “mark” spoken about in Revelation 13:16-18. The original Greek word for “mark” is “charagma,” which means a “scratch or etching.” It is also interesting to note that the number 666 is actually a word in the original Greek. The word is “chi xi stigma,” with the last part, “stigma,” also meaning “to stick or prick.” Carl believes this refers to a hypodermic needle (see photo).
Mr. Sanders asked a Boston Medical Center doctor what would happen if the lithium contained within the RFID microchip leaked into the body. The doctor responded that if the microchip broke inside a human body, the lithium would cause a severe and painful wound filled with pus. This is what the book of Revelation says:
“And the first (angel) went, and poured out his vial on the earth; and there fell a noisome and grievous sore on the men which had the mark of the beast, and on them which worshipped his image” (Revelation 16:2).
THE HIDDEN MEANING BEHIND THE NUMBER 666 REVEALED!
What I first want to mention, before I share what the Holy Spirit has revealed to me concerning the number of the beast, is that God confirms in threes. We can see this throughout scripture:
“For there are three that bear witness in heaven: the Father, the Word, and the Holy Spirit; and these three are one” (1 John 5:7 NKJV).
“and that He was buried, and that He rose again the third day according to the Scriptures” (1 Corinthians 15:4 NKJV).
“…Holy, holy, holy, Lord God Almighty, Who was and is and is to come!” (Revelation 4:8 NKJV).
There are many more examples, but I thought I would just share three of them to make the point.
Examining Revelation 13:16,17,18, the first group of three I would like to point out is that the mark of the beast is described in three separate verses, 16, 17 and 18.
The next three I see is in verse 16, “He causes all…” is followed by three contrasting categories of people,
1 – “both small and great,
2 – rich and poor,
3 – free and slave…”.
Then unto verse 17, it opens with, “and that no one may buy or sell except one who has…”, followed by three explanations of what one must have to buy or sell,
1 – “…the mark
2 – or the name of the beast,
3 – or the number of his name”.
Now unto verse 18, we read “Let him who has understanding calculate…”, which is followed by,
1 – “the number of the beast,
2 – for it is the number of a man:
3 – His number is 666”.
The last three I see is the number “6” being used three times in a row. The reason I’m making this point about God confirming in three is because it is the key to unlocking how to calculate the number 666.
Throughout the centuries there have been people trying to calculate numbers based on titles and names that come up to the number 666 to identify one person, the Antichrist; but from Revelation 13:18, I do not see where God is telling us to count up to 666, but rather to count the number of the beast. This number is identified as 666. So the verse is telling us to count the number 666.
What does it mean to count? It means to add up. So how could we add up 666? Remember my previous point about God confirming in threes is key to unlocking the number 666. So logically, what would be the best way to count the number 666? To count it equally by using the rule of three based off the number.
We cannot count it equally as 600+60+6, this would also bring us back to the start.
We cannot count it as 600+600+600, or 60+60+60 because there are no zeroes in between or at the end of 666.
The only logical option is 6+6+6=18.
What is interesting is that the verse that reveals for us to count the number itself is verse 18 (there a total of 18 verses in Revelation Chapter 13), being the third verse out of the three verses that describe the mark of the beast in Revelation 13:16,17,18. What is 18 divided by 3? 6. So 3×6=18, or 6+6+6=18.
Another interesting point is the only two other combinations (making a total of three possible combinations) for placing a “+” symbol in between 666 are:
66+6=72 and 6+66=72.
Add both 72’s together and you get 144.
Why the number 144 is worth our attention is because the verse following Revelation 13:18 is the first time in the Bible where the 144,000 are being described in detail:
“Then I looked, and behold, a Lamb standing on Mount Zion, and with Him one hundred and forty-four thousand, having His Father’s name written on their foreheads…” (Revelation 14:1).
Now if you add up all three numbers from counting 666 by moving the “+” symbol around, it would be 72+72+18=162. What is compelling about the number 162, is, if you divide 144,000 by 162, you get 888. The name of Jesus in Greek gematria adds up to 888. The New Testament was originally written in the Greek language. Revelation 14:1 not only mentions the 144,000, but also the Lamb who is Jesus.
Now what is interesting about the number for Jesus, 888, is that if you apply the same formula that was used to count 666, you get 8+8+8=24. Why the number 24? Revelation chapter 4 tells us there are 24 elders seated around the throne of God. This is the same throne where Jesus sits.
Now if you take:
8+8+8=24
8+88=96
88+8=96
you get 24+96+96=216.
Take 144,000 divided by 216 and you get 666.
Remember that this was the same exact formula we used to count the number 666 that ultimately brought forth the number 888.
Here is a quick recap to demonstrate how this formula confirms itself as being the true way to count 666:
1: 6+6+6=18 > 66+6=72 > 6+66=72 > 18+72+72=162
2: 144,000 divided by 162=888
3: 8+8+8=24 > 88+8=96 > 8+88=96 > 24+96+96=216
4: 144,000 divided by 216=666
1: 6+6+6=18 > 66+6=72…
As you can see, it is perpetual. And remember that we consistently used a formula that worked in threes being the number that God uses for confirmation.
So what could this mean? Well we know in this world we are identified by numbers in various forms. From our birth certificate to social security, as well as our drivers license; being identified based on a system of ruler ship. So it is possible that this RFID microchip will contain a new identification that has a total of 18 characters (6+6+6).
“here the wisdom is, the one having the mind let him calculate the number of the wild beast, number for “of human” it is, and the number of it 666″ (Revelation 13:1, Greek Translation).
The Greek word “anthrōpos” being used in verse 18 where it says “of human” is the Greek strongs concordance G444. The first two definitions of the word are “a human being, whether male or female”, and, “generically, to include all human individuals”. Could the number of the beast apply to all mankind?
In the Greek (the New Testament was originally written in the Greek language), and other translations, you will notice the beast is described as an “it”, instead of “him”. The reason I’m making this point is because when a translation says “His number is 666”, this would imply a singular person, the Antichrist. But by saying “the number of it 666”, implies that it is of the beast system as a whole.
We can know the number of the beast cannot be to identify products (like a new barcode) to buy or sell because scripture says we cannot buy or sell without the number of the beast. What am I getting at? There will be instances where you could buy something someone made themselves and it wouldn’t have a store branded identification on it. But for this number to be in our chips, that is where it must be to conclude ultimately that we cannot buy or sell without having the number of the beast. As previously mentioned in Revelation 13:18, the number of the beast (6+6+6=18) is a “human number”, definition “generically, to include all human individuals”.
“Why did the Biden campaign choose 30330? 2020 divided by 666 = 3.0330 Who believes this to be a coincidence? October 2020 Isaiah 53:6 Someone said we are being whipsawed in 2020. Truly a great division is taking place between good and evil—both symbolically and literally (riots, unrest, politics). If you take the current year 2020 and divide it by the number 666 (known for its satanic implications) you will get the number 30330 (repeated). This number 30330 happens to be the number used to vote for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Freaky? Supernatural? Odd for sure. Whatever this means, it doesn’t seem good to me. First, why would anyone knowingly choose those particular numbers for their campaign? If they weren’t knowingly chosen, then it appears to be a supernatural act by the evil one himself and I would want to change those numbers ASAP. And if the numbers were chosen knowing their significance, are you satanic? Is this campaign satanic? Either way I do not believe this is a coincidence. And one thing is certain, 2020 is truly being divided by Satan. He is the master deceiver and spreader of chaos. Jesus calls him the father of lies.”
So I looked up this number 30330 concerning Joe Biden, and I found this information:
If you send a text to that number (at that time), you would get a response asking to support Joe’s campaign to take down Donald Trump, with one part in caps saying “CHIP IN >>” pointing to a link to go and donate.
“CHIP IN”? Obama has used this phrase in the past on his twitter and people believe it is a subliminal message to receive the mark of the beast, that is to say the implantable RFID microCHIP that will go IN our body.
Go to: http://bible-freedom.org to see all the proof!
Is your name written in the Lamb’s book of life? Jesus says that we must be born again to enter the kingdom of God in the Gospel of John chapter 3.
“Then a third angel followed them, saying with a loud voice, “If anyone worships the beast and his image, and receives his mark on his forehead or on his hand, he himself shall also drink of the wine of the wrath of God, which is poured out full strength into the cup of His indignation. He shall be tormented with fire and brimstone in the presence of the holy angels and in the presence of the Lamb. And the smoke of their torment ascends forever and ever; and they have no rest day or night, who worship the beast and his image, and whoever receives the mark of his name” (Revelation 14:9-11).
BARACK OBAMA IS THE ANTICHRIST:
In the Islamic religion they have man called the Mahdi who is known as their messiah of whom they are waiting to take the stage. There are many testimonies from people online who believe this man will be Barack Obama who is to be the biblical Antichrist based off dreams they have received. I myself have had strange dreams about him like no other person. So much so that I decided to share this information.
He came on stage claiming to be a Christian with no affiliation to the Muslim faith…
“In our lives, Michelle and I have been strengthened by our Christian faith. But there have been times where my faith has been questioned — by people who don’t know me — or they’ve said that I adhere to a different religion, as if that were somehow a bad thing,” – Barack Obama
…but was later revealed by his own family members that he indeed is a devout Muslim.
So what’s in the name? The meaning of someones name can say a lot about a person. God throughout history has given names to people that have a specific meaning tied to their lives. How about the name Barack Obama? Let us take a look at what may be hiding beneath the surface…
“And He (Jesus) said to them (His disciples), ‘I saw Satan fall like lightning from heaven’” (Luke 10:18).
In the Hebrew language we can uncover the meaning behind the name Barack Obama.
Barack, also transliterated as Baraq, in Hebrew is: lightning
baraq – Biblical definition:
From Strongs H1299; lightning; by analogy a gleam; concretely a flashing sword: – bright, glitter (-ing, sword), lightning. (Strongs Hebrew word H1300 baraq baw-rawk’)
Barak ‘O’bamah, The use of bamah is used to refer to the “heights” of Heaven.
bamah – Biblical definition:
From an unused root (meaning to be high); an elevation: – height, high place, wave. (Strongs Hebrew word H1116 bamah baw-maw’)
The day following the election of Barack Obama (11/04/08), the winning pick 3 lotto numbers in Illinois (Obama’s home state) for 11/5/08 were 666.
Obama was a U.S. senator for Illinois, and his zip code was 60606.
These are just a few of many evidences why Barack Obama is the Antichrist. You can see many more in my article on the website above, as well as read about the dreams I’ve had concerning this man. I’m more than convinced that God has shown me that he is without a doubt the Antichrist, and we will see him rise to power in the not so dinstant future.
Jesus stands alone among the other religions who say to rightly weigh the scales of good and evil, and to make sure you have done more good than bad in this life. Is this how we conduct ourselves justly in a court of law? Bearing the image of God, is this how we project this image into our reality?
Our good works cannot save us. If we step before a judge, being guilty of a crime, the judge will not judge us by the good that we have done, but rather the crimes we have committed. If we as fallen humanity, created in God’s image, pose this type of justice, how much more a perfect, righteous, and Holy God?
God has brought down His moral law’s through the 10 commandments given to Moses at Mt. Sinai. These laws were not given so we may be justified, rather that we may see the need for a savior. They are the mirror of God’s character of what He has put in each and every one of us, with our conscious bearing witness that we know that it is wrong to steal, lie, dishonor our parents, and so forth.
We can try and follow the moral laws of the 10 commandments, but we will never catch up to them to be justified before a Holy God. That same word of the law given to Moses became flesh over 2000 years ago in the body of Jesus Christ. He came to be our justification by fulfilling the law, living a sinless perfect life that only God could fulfill; even bringing the law to it’s truest light by stating, “You have heard that it was said to those of old, ‘You shall not commit adultery.’ But I say to you that whoever looks at a woman to lust for her has already committed adultery with her in his heart” (Matthew 5:27-28).
The gap between us and the law can never be reconciled by our own merit, but the arm of Jesus is stretched out by the grace and mercy of God. And if we are to grab on, through faith in Him, He will pull us up being the one to justify us. As in the court of law, if someone steps in and pays our fine, even though we are guilty, the judge can do what is legal and just and let us go free. That is what Jesus did almost 2000 years ago on the cross. It was a legal transaction being fulfilled in the spiritual realm by the shedding of His blood.
Because God is Holy and just, the wrath that we deserve could not go unnoticed. Through the perfect righteousness and justice of God’s character, it must be dealt with, it must be quenched, it must be satisfied.
For God takes no pleasure in the death of the wicked (Ezekiel 18:23). This is why in Isaiah chapter 53, where it speaks of the coming Messiah and His soul being a sacrifice for our sins, why it says it pleased God to crush His only begotten Son.
This is because the wrath that we deserve was justified by being poured out upon His Son. If that wrath was poured out on us, we would all die and go to hell. God created a way of escape by pouring it out on His Son whose soul could not be left in Hades, but was raised to life on the third day and seated at the right hand of God in power.
So now when we put on the Lord Jesus Christ (Romans 13:14), God no longer sees the person who deserves His wrath, but rather the glorious image of His perfect Son dwelling in us, justifying us as if we received the wrath we deserve, making a way of escape from the curse of death.
Now what we must do is repent and put our trust and faith in the savior, confessing and forsaking our sins. This is not just a head knowledge of believing in Jesus, but rather receiving His words, taking them to heart, so that we may truly be transformed into the image of God. Where we no longer live to practice sin, but rather turn from our sins and practice righteousness through faith in Him.
Jesus answered, “Most assuredly, I say to you, unless one is born of water and the Spirit, he cannot enter the kingdom of God. That which is born of the flesh is flesh, and that which is born of the Spirit is spirit. Do not marvel that I said to you, ‘You must be born again’” (John 3:5-7).
Come before the Lord with a contrite spirit, humble yourself, ask Him for His forgiveness, to receive the free gift of His salvation, to receive His Holy Spirit, so that you may be transformed into a new creature, into a child of the living God.
There is a reason why the words of Jesus have been translated in to over 2000 languages, and nothing comes remotely close (the Quran just over 100), because there is a God in heaven who desires to have a relationship with you, to know Him through His word, as that is how we personally get to know anybody. There is a reason why it is the year 2021, because Jesus came to earth just over 2000 years ago fulfilling major prophecy causing a divide in our timeline.
Jesus loves you! Seek Him while He may be found! We must repent and turn from practicing sin…for if we are not following Jesus, we are following the devil. There is no neatural ground. We are either living in the lie, or the truth. God bless you!
ବାସ୍ତବ ସମୟର ସର୍ବଶେଷ ୱେବ୍ ସମ୍ବାଦ |
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