• Equity Research | Narayana Hrudayalaya

    Growth drivers shaping the landscape of healthcare delivery in India: ๐˜—๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ท๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ฐ๐˜ด๐˜ฑ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ด ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ถ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ ~70% ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต ๐˜ฃ๐˜บ ๐˜ท๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ถ๐˜ฆ (๐˜ถ๐˜ฑ ๐˜ง๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ 60% ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ 2016). ๐˜ž๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ท๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฆ, 90% ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฑ๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜บ ๐˜ช๐˜ด ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜จ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ป๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ. ๐˜ž๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฉ ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด, ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ช๐˜ด ๐˜ข ๐˜ด๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ง๐˜ต ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ง๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ฑ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ง๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜จ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ป๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ญ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ/๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ค๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ฐ๐˜ด๐˜ฑ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ด. While private…

  • Valuation and Equity Research – Interview Questions

    This linked document has the list of topics/questions that I have covered in my LinkedIn posts. A snapshot of the document is presented below

  • Financial Statement Analysis

    If you want to learn Valuation and Equity Research, please subscribe to my YT channel and follow me on LinkedIn: ย ย /ย gautamrastogi1 . Feel free to email me at gautamrastogi.investandrise@gmail.com or PM me onย linkedin This education video series has 3 videos: Understanding the three Financial Statements | How the three statements are linked? Learning Objectives: Link…

  • Equity Research | Agarwal Industrial Corp Ltd

    This blog post has links to my 3-video equity research series on Agarwal Industrial, an infra ancillary, which seems to be uniquely positioned to capture the road construction led bitumen import demand in India. If you want to learn Valuation and Equity Research, please subscribe to my YT channel and follow me on LinkedIn:ย ย ย /ย gautamrastogi1ย ย  Feel…

  • Equity Research | Radiant Cash Management

    This blog post has links to my 3-video equity research series on Radiant Cash Management, a valuable logistics company in India. If you want to learn Valuation and Equity Research, please subscribe to my YT channel and follow me on LinkedIn: ย ย /ย gautamrastogi1ย ย  Feel free to email me at gautamrastogi.investandrise@gmail.com or PM me on linkedin Video 1…

  • My notes on Rajshree Polypack, a company that makes packaging for F&B industry

    As I have understood, there are two packaging types – rigid and flexible. In rigid packaging, there are broadly two methods to make packaging – Thermoforming and Injection Molding. In thermoforming, plastic rigid sheets are subjected to heat for molding into a desired shape. IM on the other hand, converts plastic pellets into molten material,…

  • My notes on Tinna Rubber, a company that recycles tyres

    When you come across a growth story with powerful powerful (yes used the word twice!) tailwinds, you may be inclined to overpay for growth. But then you hit on too many red flags relating to quality of reported financials — then you pause, you think shall I leave it and go find another company or…

  • My notes on Macpower, a company that makes CNC Machines

    Image Credit: https://www.thecrucible.org/guides/machining/lathes/ I came across CNC machines through a post in LinkedIn. Up until that time, I had never heard of CNC. CNC stands for Computer Numerical Control. CNC machines are software driven machine tools used in manufacturing plants for metal cutting. My wife, who has an automotive engineering background, explained to me the…

  • My notes on Sealmatic, a company that makes mechanical seals

    For any questions or comments, feel free to email me at gautamrastogi.investandrise@gmail.com or PM me onย linkedin

  • Oriental Carbon and Chemicals – Indian company operating in an Oligopoly

    Image credits: tirehub.com OCCL makes Insoluble Sulphur, which is used as a vulcanizer in the manufacturing of tires. There are 4 companies – Eastman / Flexsys (US), Shikoku (Japan), Chinese Sunsine and OCCL – that make a major chunk of the IS in the world. High capital intensity and long IS approval cycles by tire…

  • Vardhman Textiles – playing the commodity game

    image credits: moneylife.in In my quest to find honest, well run and moated undervalued securities, I chanced upon the Cotton Textiles sector. I quickly realized that most of the companies (more specifically companies that spin cotton yarn and make fabrics) in this sector are trading at high single digit / low double digit PE due…

  • FIIs raise stake in 6 Indian PSU banks for 3 straight quarters; do you own any?

    Well, to each their own, but here are some metrics that one may want to consider looking ๐๐•๐๐’ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ข๐ง๐ : Long term stock price compounding for banks follow Bookย Value / Share compounding, which in turn depends on๐‘๐Ž๐„ = ROA * Leverage๐‘๐ž-๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ (incl equity raises) a. ๐‘๐ž๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง ๐จ๐ง ๐€๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ญ๐ฌ:(Net Interest Inc + Fees + Treasury Inc –…

  • Equity Research – Aditya Birla Sun Life (ABSL) Asset Management Company (AMC)

    ** I will be creating an equity research report for ABSL AMC. For now, I am sharing the summary of my analysis and valuation (long-term return expectations) of ABSL AMC ** ** Analysis and Valuation dated 29/7/2022 ** 2 months ago, I had put out an equity research report on HDFC AMC, in which I…

  • Equity Research Report – Micron Technology

    Please use the below gdrive link to access the pdf reports: FY22-Q3: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lrhCqXfn1uBp20taLtysahhk7ImiRmUE/view?usp=sharing FY22-Q2: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yod8T7z8Q6ed9_LxLS4QSPzVO3kesbsl/view?usp=sharing . FY22-Q2 report is also published on Seeking Alpha. Here is the video link to the FY22-Q2 report:

  • HDFC AMC – Equity Research Reports

    Please use the below gdrive link to access the pdf report document: 2022 Q3: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kQdvxuFlmzaI9Vx0ZT3dnadndoS95Hjw/view?usp=sharing Here is the video link to the 2022 Q3 report: In the video, I give a quick walk through of my report on the company. I primarily focus on the industry and my investment thesis. You would find more details…

  • UTI AMC Valuation 2021

    Mutual Fund AUM penetration in India is 12% of GDP vs the global average of ~60%. Emerging markets such as Brazil and SA are at ~50%. Overall MF in India has crossed INR 30 Trillion in FY21 by growing just under 20% over the last 5 years. As per estimates, overall MF in India will…

  • Zomato IPO Valuation 2021

    After coming across so many polarized views, I couldn’t stop myself from valuing this much talked about IPO. While I had originally intended to value the entire business, I had to contend myself with valuing their major business segment of “food delivery”. I have not valued “dining out” and B2B “hyperpure” (which is into suppling…

  • Invisible leverage is no longer invisible: Is investor risk perception impacted?

    In 2019, accounting rules regarding treatment of operating leases were changed. Under old accounting operating leases were expensed. As per new accounting, operating leases have finally found the place where they long belonged, the balance sheet. Retail, restaurants, airlines, logistics and telecom companies have significant operating lease obligations. With lease liabilities becoming visible as debt (and…

  • Zuora – bet on subscription economy?

    Zuora was founded by Tien Tzuo (ex-chief strategy officer at Salesforce) in 2007. Tien coined the term subscription economy to define the shift taking place from product ownership to service consumption (Uber and Netflix are very relatable examples of companies that helped enhance the movement form car and dvd ownership to โ€œas a serviceโ€). He…

  • Lyft Valuation Update – 2020

    In this writing, I dive into Lyftโ€™s numbers again and value the firm as it battles the pandemic. Valuation is built on the expectation that after mobility levels recover, economies of scale will start taking effect in the mid-long term. Using rider based economics in my DCF valuation, I value existing active riders at ~$15…

  • Costco Equity Valuation

    Costco Wholesale Corporation (Costco) has a solid business model with a predictable stream of subscription revenue, which constitutes 90% of the net profit. In the video (embedded below), I have projected out Costco’s financial statements and valued its equity. Although, Costco trades at a P/E of ~36 (amongst the highest in the retail business it…

  • Value in Facebook

    Facebook earns close to 99% of its revenue by advertising. Marketers pay for ad products based on the number of impressions delivered or the number of clicks done by users. The business continues to impress me given that my friends, family and colleagues are so hooked to the platform and most of them (albeit to…

  • Equity Valuation for a Financial Firm

  • Bandhan and Gruh Merger Valuation

    This blog post has two sections – In the first section, we value Gruh Finance separately (before merging into Bandhan). We have analysed and valued Bandhan separately here (in our previous blog post). In the second section, we value the merged entity and estimate the value of synergy to assess if Gruh’s pricing as per…

  • Bandhan Bank Valuation (just prior to merger with Gruh)

    In this blog post, we have assessed the key fundamentals of Bandhan Bank just prior to its merger with Gruh Finance. Using Discounted Cash Flow valuation with latest reported numbers from Sep’19, we have estimated an intrinsic value of Rs. 495 per share, making the Bank slightly overvalued before the impending merger. We have also…

  • TCS Stock Valuation

    The objective of this blog is to analyze TCS fundamentals and estimate a fair value per share. Please note that this valuation was done on 4/29/2019. Just as a manufacturing company invests in building new products/plants, a service company such as TCS invests in up-skilling (learning and development) its existing employees and recruiting new talent.…

  • Virinchi Stock Valuation

    The objective of this blog post is to analyze the fundamentals and value the 3 lines of businesses of Virinchi separately and estimate a consolidated Fair Value Per Share. Any opinion expressed in this blog post is solely my own and does not represent views of my employer. Moreover, this stock valuation should not be…

  • Lyft IPO 2019 Valuation

    Ride sharing companies have revolutionized the way we commute. While Uber has gone global and continues to expand to other businesses, Lyft has shown a much smaller narrative and is present only in US and Canada. Lyft just filed for a much awaited IPO and should get listed by the end of this month. I…

  • Lyft – User Based Valuation

    Edit (9th March 2019) – Using the user based statistics and financial information made public in Lyft’s S-1 prospectus, I have revalued Lyft at ~$17 billion. My valuation is presented in the link alongside https://investandrise.com/lyft-ipo-2019-valuation/ Ride sharing companies have revolutionized the way we commute. Both Uber and Lyft would be going public next year. While…

  • Upwork (UPWK) IPO Valuation

    The objective of this article is to estimate the intrinsic share value for freenlancing platform Upwork, which went public on Oct 3rd. The estimate is arrived at using a DCF valuation based on the company fundamentals given in its S-1 prospectusย and my own views/forecasts on the company Disclaimer: The intent is certainly not to give…

  • Bandhan Bank IPO Valuation

    Image Credits: businessnewsdaily The objective is to give a range of fair values to Bandhan Bankโ€™s IPO to help the reader make an informed decision before investing (and the idea is certainly not to predict listing/short-term gains). Relative valuation alone does not really help us when the firm does not have a close second.ย  In…

  • LT Foods Stock Valuation

    Edit (20th Jan 19) – Updated valuation present in https://youtu.be/GlGAZMqMNWY Theย objectiveย of this article is toย analyze the fundamentals of LT Foodsย (Daawat Rice) Stock andย estimate a fair value per share based on its fundamentals. I have attempted to compare the stock with its peers using certain key financial ratios. I have gone ahead and modeled the financial…

  • The Energy Oxymoron – Ecofriendly Municipal Waste

    We have been talking a lot about renewable sources of energy and how the energy mix is slowly but steadily changing. Under the National Solar Mission, the government aims to install 100 GW of solar capacity by 2022. Currently, 5 GW of solar installed capacity has been achieved and it is poised to cross 20…